Italy's super volcano

An underwater eruption of Italy's supervolcano, Campi Flegrei, could produce 100-foot tsunamis that could severely impact populated coastal areas like Pozzuoli and Sorrento, scientists have said. By modeling offshore eruptions at the active volcano, which sits to the west of Naples, researchers were able to show that tsunamis could pose a risk to the region. They believe the National Emergency Plan for Campi Flegrei should be updated accordingly. Campi Flegrei is a volcanic complex consisting of 24 craters and edifices. Many of these are underwater, in Pozzuoli Bay. The volcano last erupted in 1538, when a week-long discharge led to the formation of a new volcano, Monte Nuovo. Campi Flegrei has been active for 60,000 years, with the caldera forming during two large explosive eruptions. Several recent studies have indicated changes are taking place at the system. In one, researchers discovered magma appears to be building under the volcanic system, suggesting Campi Flegrei is entering a new caldera cycle. This new phase, they say, could "at some undetermined point in the future," culminating in a "large volume eruption." In another report, researchers looked at the ground deformation that has taken place in the region since the 1950s, finding that the volcano has been building energy throughout this period, potentially indicating it is "evolving towards conditions more favorable to eruption." Because of the risk Campi Flegrei poses—around 500,000 people live in the volcano's "red zone"—the Italian government has a National Emergency Plan for the event of an eruption. This plan, however, does not include the event of an eruption taking place at sea. "Campi Flegrei is an active volcano that has been producing explosive eruptions in the past for at least 60,000 years including two super eruptions," Martina Ulvrova, from ETH Zurich's Institute of Geophysics, told Newsweek. "There are several high risks associated with this volcanic activity including large explosions that would destroy landscape and emit ashes into the atmosphere, dense pyroclastic flow of hot gas, ash and other volcanic material that is ejected into the atmosphere during an eruption." Ulvrova added that, while the evacuation plan for a more likely land-based eruption is well established, a tsunami could also pose a risk: "We cannot neglect it and it should be included in the hazard maps for the region," she said. In a study published in the Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, Ulvrova and her colleagues produced models showing the potential tsunamis produced by eruptions of different sizes in various locations in the Bay of Pozzuoli. According to their tests, an explosion would form a "crater-like cavity at the water surface" with a column of water appearing in the center. When the column collapses, it would produce a second wave.